Saturday, May 04, 2024

Housing Affordability: Would a Foreign Buyer Ban Make a Difference?

While home values have steadily retreated from their pandemic peak in recent months, they remain at near-record highs, posing an ongoing challenge for many Australians who want to own their own home.

In the September quarter of last year the national average home price sat at $889,800, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows – 33% higher than in September 2019 ($668,800).

Joey Moloney, a senior associate at the Grattan Institute, says that the affordability of housing in Australia has been deteriorating for years though.

Read the full article at Money Magazine

Australian Property Forecast: What’s In Store For 2023?

The property market took a hit in 2022 as mortgage rates started to increase much faster than initially expected, rising eight times to end the year at 3.1%. To put this into context, the cash rate was sitting at just 0.1% at the beginning of 2022.

“I think what we saw in 2022 was a bit of a roller coaster really in terms of property prices in the property market because we started the year with record prices and then moved into a downturn quite rapidly,” chief of research and economics at Domain, Nicola Powell, told ForbesAdvisor.

Earlier in 2021 the RBA governor, Phillip Lowe, had said that it would not be raising rates until 2024—a comment Lowe has since stepped back from and apologised to borrowers who took out heft loans on the basis of his erroneous advice.

“The RBA kept on insisting that they wouldn’t lift rates until 2024. Now we were skeptical that they could keep to that promise,” SQM Research owner and managing director, Louis Christopher, added.

In 2023 property experts are cautiously optimistic that as interest rates plateau that stability will return to the market. Here’s what we may expect to see…

Read the original article at forbes.com

How housing made rich Australians 50 per cent richer, leaving renters and the young behind

How housing made rich Australians 50 per cent richer, leaving renters and the young behind — and how to fix it

Compared to the rest of the world, income inequality is not particularly high in Australia, nor is it getting much worse — until you include housing.

Rising housing costs have dramatically widened the gap between what Australians on high and low incomes can afford. Rising home prices paired with plummeting rates of home-ownership are driving up wealth inequalities.

If we want to address inequality, we will have to fix housing.

Key points:

  • Housing is draining the incomes of the poor
  • Housing is driving wealth inequality
  • Housing is driving up capital income
  • Housing is creating a “Jane Austen world”
  • The Federal Government needs to fix taxation
  • Australia needs to build more houses

Read the original article at The Conversation

What’s Going to Happen With the Cost of Living Crisis in 2023?

2022 was a year of turbulence. With the war in Ukraine sparking a global energy crisis, our Reserve Bank raising interest rates to their highest levels in decades, and lettuce somehow costing more than some street drugs, we were all watching our wallets and wondering where it was going to end up.

Now that we’re into the bright and shiny year of 2023, those factors are still very much with us. But just how far this cost of living crisis and economic unrest will go over the next 12 months is still a little hazy.

Inflation is still the driving factor in the cost of living crisis, with the price of virtually everything soaring. As the government and the RBA grapple to get it under control, there are policy interventions that may help people weather the storm. But how long it keeps raining for will again depend on global, environmental, and individual factors, which are all very hard to map economically.

So, here’s what the financial forecast looks like between now and next year, and precisely how much financial anxiety you should be feeling.

A tsunami of homelessness is about to hit

Rising rents, eight interest rate hikes, surging living costs and natural disasters inflamed what was already among world’s least affordable rental markets Australian prime minister Anthony Albanese has announced.

Belinda has applied for more than 100 rental homes in the past year and been rejected every time.

The 39-year-old Australian single mother of four now lives in a temporary shelter in Campbelltown, southwest of Sydney, and has six months to find a home that costs under 500 Australian dollars a week, or risk ending up sleeping rough.

“I don’t know where I’m supposed to go after that. I have got a house full of furniture that I don’t really want to get rid of. I don’t really want to get rid of my cat or my puppy,” says Belinda. “It is a bit scary to tell you the truth.”

Relentlessly rising rents, eight consecutive interest rate hikes, surging living costs and devastating natural disasters in the past few years have inflamed what was already among the world’s least affordable rental markets.

How Covid turned home ownership into the Great Australian Fever Dream

When Covid hit the Australian property market, house prices skyrocketed, people were priced out of the market, supply chain issues hit construction sites, bankruptcies and insolvencies plagued the building sector, and rather aptly, Australians’ aspirations to own a home became the Great Australian Fever Dream.

As the residential sales market raged red-hot rental vacancy rates plunged to record lows and won’t be letting up soon, and industrial real estate also never shook the superlative “record” – sounding rather like a broken record.

Australia’s rental affordability crisis reaches record low

Rental affordability has reached a record low across the country, with low-income earners the hardest hit when trying to find somewhere to live.

Australians are being hit with unsustainable rent increases, with every capital city nationwide experiencing a decline in rental affordability, according to new data insight.

The annual Rental Affordability Index* released this week revealed the low-income renters such as single parents, pensioners, and job seekers are most vulnerable and require more active and immediate support.

But it seems the rental crisis is impacting almost everyone applying for home.

* The annual rental affordability index (RAI) report is an easy to understand indicator of rental affordability relative to household incomes. It is a crucial tool for policy makers to track rental affordability trends and inform evidence-based policy responses — highlighting nuances between places and the experiences of disadvantaged households.

Download the latest report at the SGS Economics & Planning website: https://www.sgsep.com.au/projects/rental-affordability-index

Should Australia create ‘settlement cities’ for refugees? Here’s why some say yes

‘Settlement cities’ in Sydney and Melbourne are welcoming places for newly arrived refugees, according to a report, with many settling into their new communities quickly.

A report by the Edmund Rice Centre and migrant settlement agency AMES Australia found ‘settlement cities’ – referring to Local Government Areas (LGAs) which settle a large share of refugees during their first years in Australia – made them feel at home quickly.

The report describes the settlement city ‘model’ not as a formal one, but instead the qualities these LGAs have come to share that facilitate refugee resettlement.

While the model for refugee arrivals was unintended by policy makers, it was having a positive effect.

“Refugees who have this community support find it helps them settle quickly and relatively easily in their new home,” the report said.

AMES Australia chief executive Cath Scarth said the success of settlement cities reinforced the need for an expansion of them to other areas.

“Securing employment and housing, like any other Australians, are priorities for newly arrived refugees. And we can see from the research that having welcoming cities and communities can help deliver these aspirations,” she said.

Read the original article at www.sbs.com.au

The eye of the storm: House prices still have a long way to fall

It’s a nail-biting period for homeowners. The rate of decline in house prices eased again in September suggesting a softer landing for the market but if the consensus of economists is to be believed, it’s not over yet.

We could be in the eye of the storm. And if house prices experience a peak to trough fall of between 15 per cent and 20 per cent, as many economists expect, we are less than half way there given the national market is off only circa 6 per cent.

Even if the Reserve Bank of Australia, which places a more conservative 11 per cent estimate on house price devaluation, is closer to the mark, there is still a long way to go before the market cools down. […]

Read the original article at SMH

Australian Treasury: Affordable housing is a key priority

Housing supply and affordability is one of the biggest challenges facing our economy and our communities.

With rents through the roof and vacancies through the floor, families are struggling to find an affordable place to live.

With unemployment rates at historic lows, it’s increasingly difficult for people to live close to where the jobs and opportunities are.

And with shortages of materials, skills and labour, it’s getting harder to build a new home.

That’s why it’s more important than ever that we work together to ensure there is an adequate supply of affordable housing where it is needed – close to jobs, transport and other services.

Today as part of the Albanese Government’s first Investor Roundtable, we’re bringing some of the nation’s most influential investors to the table to help unlock investment opportunities in national priority areas.

Starting with housing today, we will work closer than ever before with leading investors, major banks, global asset managers and superannuation funds to identify and overcome the barriers to investment.

Some of Australia’s largest investors are represented at the roundtable, with more than $2 trillion under management by the superannuation funds and institutional investors alone.

The roundtable recognises there’s an opportunity for government and investors to genuinely shift the needle on the housing challenge by working more closely together.

Governments at all levels can and will play an important role in this area – through the supply of land or the priority approval of important projects in close proximity to jobs and opportunities.

As the first order of business at today’s roundtable, we will discuss ways to build on our landmark National Housing Accord announced last month – an agreement with state and territory governments, local government and major investors to build more affordable, well‑located homes.

Our shared ambition is to build one million new well‑located homes over five years from 2024.

The Productivity Commission recently noted that with 411 dwellings per 1,000 people, Australia has one of the lowest housing stocks in the OECD. But in a time of growing social need and tightening fiscal constraints, the Commonwealth can’t address the significant challenges we face alone.

It’s the Government’s aspiration that the National Housing Accord will help reduce the forecast dip in construction that will only make the housing shortage worse.

As part of this agreement, the Commonwealth has committed $350 million investment to build an extra 10,000 new affordable homes over five years, and the states and territories have also come to the table with a commitment to build up to 10,000 additional homes over the same period.

At today’s forum, we will also discuss workable financing solutions to encourage greater investment in affordable housing and we’ll look to identify ways to help players around the room invest at scale, achieving commercial rates of return and developing a consistent investment pipeline.

All Australians have an interest in the availability of affordable housing close to jobs and opportunities – it’s equally as important for Australian workers as it is for Australian businesses.

For too long, the lack of affordable housing has served as a barrier for skilled workers who want to live closer to work and take advantage of the opportunities in our economy.

Delivering affordable homes close to jobs and industry is an important part of solving the labour and skills shortages that are holding our economy back.

As a government, we know that we always achieve more when we work together with states, territories, the private sector and communities.

Investor roundtables like the one I’m hosting today give us an opportunity to bring the key players around the table to coordinate our efforts in the best interests of all Australians.

By harnessing the power of Australian capital, we can deliver strong returns for investors and strong returns for our community.

Today’s roundtable is an important step forward in aligning our efforts.